Adaptation and Mitigation to climate change

National Reports

The report presenting the Fifth National Communication from the Netherlands includes supplementary information of the Kyoto Protocol.  The Netherlands is a constitutional monarchy.  It is a densely populated country containing 16.4 million people in 2008.  An additional important demographic factor influencing the pressure on the environment is a decrease in the number of persons per household.  As the Netherlands is a low lying country situated in the delta of the rivers Rhine, IJssel, and Meuse, with around 24% of the land below sea level, an increase of around one degree has been measured over the last 100 years, with the warmest summers concentrated over the past 10-12 years.  This is important as the population per house hold is decreasing. 

Furthermore, as the Netherlands are apart of Europe, together they care very much about climate change and have made many developments and plans on present and future emission impacts.  I have narrowed down two, of many, interesting examples of efforts the Netherlands is pursuing towards preparedness to adapt to future impacts of climate change. Prior to explaining these examples, I want to note that the Netherlands currently uses a national system for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks as meant of the Kyoto Protocol.  The Netherlands estimated an emission-reduction targeted to 6% below the emissions level in the base year, for the period 2008-2012.

To reach the targeted emission goal, the Netherlands came up with many plans.  One plan stipulated firm targets reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while increasing both energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in the ambitious working program, entitled: New Energy for Climate Policy: The Clean and Efficient Program.  This program is aimed at setting a trend change.  The policy target is reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, by 30% in 2020, compared to the 1990 level.  An important element is a long-term policy agenda for sustainability and energy.

Another plan for the Netherlands is education, training, and public awareness.  The program's general communication approach includes the following steps: to inform and raise awareness among the relevant target groups; offer specific options for actions, relevant and suitable for the target groups; provide inspiring examples; and demonstrate the exemplary function of the government.

The below image is the Netherlands' historic and projected emissions of GHG provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Adaption

In addition to the heat wave which occurred in Europe, 2003, possible impacts of rapid change in Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), also known as the thermohaline circulation (THC), in the North Atlantic are now being updated.  The IPCC indicates that model stimulation's of an abrupt shut-down of the Atlantic MOC indicate that this is unlikely to occur before 2100 and the impacts on European temperatures of any slowing in circulation before then are likely to be offset by the immediate effects of positive radiative forcing under increasing greenhouse gases.  Any slowing or full Atlantic MOC shut-down, temperatures on Europe's western margin would be most affected, as well as, further rises in sea level on European coasts.  Because the Netherlands (and most of Europe) is currently under sea level, this indication is very frightening to this continent.  More, this will not only affect Europe, this will affect most countries in relation to the Atlantic ocean. 

Below is an image of the characteristics of the summer 2003 heatwave temperature anomaly, observations, present climate stimulation, and future climate stimulation prepared by the IPCC.

 

 

 

Kyoto Protocol

 

The Kyoto Protocol is the international treaty to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.  Under the declaration, "The European Community and its Member States will fulfill their respective commitments of the Protocol jointly in accordance with the provisions."  The Netherlands is included to be a State of the European Community.  The European Community has the following obligations to contribute to the Protocol:

•  preserving, protecting and improving the quality of the environment;
•  protecting human health;
•  prudent and rational utilization of natural resources;
•  promoting measures at international level to deal with regional or world wide environmental problems.

Europe's quantified emission reduction commitment will be fulfilled through the Community and its Member States.  Europe will provide information on relevant Community legal instruments on a regular basis. 

 

The below image indicates the Kyoto Protocol by country given by the Climate Change Guide.

 

 

 

 

       Parties; Annex I & II countries with binding targets

       Parties; Developing countries without binding targets

       States not Party to the Protocol

       Signatory country with no intention to ratify the treaty, with no binding targets

       Countries that have denounced the Protocol, with no binding targets

       Parties with no binding targets in the second period, which previously had targets

 

 

Mitigating Climate Change

 

The present concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is higher ever, and continues to rise.  Human activities, especially our world-wide increased population, have caused an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.  The primary causes are fossil-fuel emissions and land use change, like deforestation.  Today, most countries are mitigating the CO2 causing climate change issue.

 

The Netherlands is making alternatives for fossil fuel combustion, such as bio-energy and offshore wind energy, which have distinctively larger spatial claims compared to conventional energy resources.  Recent research aims to contribute to land use and water management in the Netherlands that is emission-low and contributes to our energy supply via multifunctional land use.

 

Below is an image reiterating bio-energy.



 

Mitigate, Adapt, or Both?

 

Overall, I think we should mitigate while we adapt to climate change.  Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions means attempting climate change mitigation, trying to reduce the impact we must expect.  This will include new policies, innovative technologies, and a change in lifestyle for most of us, all of which will certainly come at a price.  We also need to go flat out at the same time on a quite different strategy, climate adaption, preparing to cope with the inevitable changes ahead.  Climate is neutrality is a way to mitigation which will help to reduce the likely damage.  This will lessen the need for adaption and alleviate the cost of adapting.  Adaption and mitigation can complement each other and together reduce the consequences of anthropogenic climate change caused by human activities.

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Change Impacts

Netherland's Climate Projections:

The Netherland's continent is Europe.  According to the ICPP,
"Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean." Intriguingly, the lowest cool temperature in the winter and the highest warm temperature in the summer are more likely to increase than the average temperature in Europe. Moreover, annual precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe while decreasing in the Mediterranean. Thus, the snowfall will decrease in the winter and the probability of summer drought will increase in central Europe and the Mediterranean.

Although it is agreed and understood upon summer and winter precipitation changes, there is disagreement on the “magnitude and geographical details of precipitation change” (ICPP, 2007).  The ICPP explains the uncertainties are due to Europe’s sensitivity to climate change from the atmospheric circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).  Europe has complications calculating the regulation of local water and energy cycles which furthers uncertainty of climate change. 

In addition to global warming, there are several other factors in which shape climate changes in Europe and the Mediterranean.  The ICPP give recent examples of climate change.  One example is the central European heat wave in 2003.  This caused a long period of, “anticyclonic weather.”  Another example is the severe cyclone-induced flooding in central Europe, August 2002.  Finally, a strong warming of winters in northern Europe has occurred from the 1960’s to 1990’s.  The warming was affected by a “trend toward a more positive phase of the NAO.”  

Scientists suggest Europe has an increased greenhouse gas concentration which will cause the MOC to weaken.  This will prevent warming to occur.  However, according to the ICPP, “it is very unlikely to reverse the warming to cooling.”

The below figure represents the, “Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901 to 1950 for two Europe land regions for 1906 to 2005 (black line) and as simulated (red envelope) by MMD models incorporating known forcings; and as projected for 2001 to 2100 by MMD models for the A1B scenario (orange envelope). The bars at the end of the orange envelope represent the range of projected changes for 2091 to 2100 for the B1 scenario (blue), the A1B scenario (orange) and the A2 scenario (red)" (ICPP, 2007).

 

 

Current Knowledge About Future Impacts:

According to the ICPP, Europe has documented changes including retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude. These changes are projected to cause climate change.  Most all of Europe is expected to be negatively affected by future climate change, thus, economic challenges will be posed.  Some of the negative impacts will include, “increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion” (ICPP, 2007).  In addition, Europe will face a loss in winter tourism due to the mountainous areas seeing less snowfall. While southern Europe will face high temperatures and drought, central and eastern Europe is projected to have a decrease in precipitation.  Thus, heat waves are projected to increase similar to the event in 2003.  Contrarily, northern Europe is expected to see a mixture of climate change to outweigh its benefits.  The positive benefits include reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth.  However, the negative benefits include more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems, and increasing ground stability.  The adaption to climate change, according to the ICPP, is likely to benefit from experience gained in reaction to extreme climate events.  Europe needs strong adaption plans to implement proactive climate change.

Executive Summary:

Both the warming trend and rainfall have affected retreat of glaciers and extent of permafrost while lengthening the growing season and shift of species.  Again, the heat wave in 2003 had major impacts on these changes.

As winter and flash floods are projected to increase throughout Europe, sea-level rise is likely to threaten 1.6 million additional people per year.  Conversely, warmer and drier conditions will cause more and prolonged droughts leading to a longer fire season (more so in the Mediterranean area.)  In addition, increased rock fall is anticipated due to, “destabilization of mountain walls by rising temperatures and melting permafrost” (ICPP, 2007).  While some impacts may be positive, the benefits average out.

Further, water stress is expected to increase covering central and southern Europe.  A country or region is said to experience water stress when annual water supplies drop per person per year.    According to the ICPP, “The percentage area under high water stress is likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070'ss, and the additional number of people affected by the 2070’s is expected to be between 16 million and 44 million.” Today, the competition for water resources is much more intense. This is because there are now over seven billion people on the planet; their consumption of water-thirsty meat and vegetables is rising, and there is increasing competition for water from industry, urbanization and biofuel crops. 

The rise in sea levels potentially affects human populations and the natural environments.  Sea level rise is likely to cause an, “inland migration of beaches and the loss of up to 20% of coastal wetlands, reducing habitat availability for several species that breed or forage in low-lying coastal areas” (ICPP, 2007).  Also, glaciers are slowly disappearing along with permafrost areas.  This will not only contribute to sea level rise, but will also affect agriculture as an increase in water demand for irrigation will occur. 

Governments in Europe have strived to focus on strong actions and coping with extreme climate change and proactive risk management.  Actions are being addressed toward long-term climate change. Between Europe’s actions, research, and management, options to cope with climate change varies in that some having many more options than others.  

Netherland's Threat:

As an economically and socially advanced country, the Netherlands is a low-lying nation, with a refined agricultural sector and high population density. Half of the country lies below 1 meter above sea level, according to the ICPP, with an eighth of the country lying below sea level. Without an extensive network of dams, dykes and dunes, the Netherlands would be especially prone to flooding. As a predicted outcome of Global Climate Change, sea level rise could impact the Netherlands drastically, leading to social and economic devastation.

With one quarter of its area under sea level, the Netherlands is especially vulnerable to water threats posed by climate change. Out of necessity, the Netherlands are leaders in adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change through innovative and proactive solutions to rising sea levels, droughts and increasingly violent and inconsistent weather that destabilizes the world’s coastal and water-bound areas.

The Netherlands are working with the United States to explore ways to “climate proof” America’s shores, water-ways and cities, as part of a holistic response to climate change. Both countries share best-practices in climate change adaption to develop advanced water storage strategies, water management technologies, promote sustainable cities, and secure long-term commercial and agricultural growth.

The below figures are from The New York Academy of Sciences.

 

 

 

 

According to The New York Academy of Sciences, “the country is surrounded by water; one-quarter of it is below sea level; 70% of its gross national product is produced below sea level, making it ‘incredibly vulnerable to climate change.’ Small in area, and with a population of 16.5 million people, the country is the most densely populated in Europe, and most of its population is urban.”